I would go for a 2240 - the latest ONTAP supported on the 2040 is 8.1, which limits your options down the track, plus the extra performance of the 2240 will help if you're adding more VMs. I've just today replaced a 2040 used as an offsite SnapVault secondary with a 2220. Although for me the driver was that it was cheaper to by the 2220 with 12x2TB disks than get the same number of disks for the 2040. The only thing to think about is extending the maintenance on your existing drives if you keep them when you upgrade the head.
Wow, that's is a very low price, is that third party or Netapp, just hardware replacement?
It may be NetApp US has a very different pricing policy to their cousins in Europe and Asia.
In Europe we buy our filers with 3 years premium 4 hours support, that typically adds 25% to the cost. Try to buy another year of support at the end of that would typically be the same as the original hardware cost.